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Tacoma Defiance vs Sporting KC II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 02:00

Tacoma Defiance

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sporting KC II

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.2%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.3%1-16.2%1-23.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.4%2-18.7%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.8%3-18.1%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-111.1%4+-26.5%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.1% 57.8% 1.73 +9.2%

Draw 16.0% 25.6% 3.90 -22.6%

Away win 20.9% 28.2% 3.55 -15.5%

Over 2.5 68.2% 71.4% 1.40 -4.5%

Over 3.5 48.2% 51.3% 1.95 -6.0%

BTTS 63.1% 71.4% 1.40 -11.7%

Home O1.5 66.4% 70.9% 1.41 -6.4%

Away O1.5 33.1% 41.7% 2.40 -20.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.1%

H 63% / xG 2.8-1.2 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 1–1 6.2%

#5 3–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tacoma Defiance2.8

Sporting KC II1.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TACOMA DEFIANCE · PPG 1.67

SPORTING KC II · PPG 0.73

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.61 for Home, form 1.67 vs 0.73 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tacoma Defiance (H) 63.1%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +9.2%

Draw 16.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -22.6%

Sporting KC II (A) 20.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tacoma Defiance face Sporting KC II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tacoma Defiance a 63% chance, the draw 16% and Sporting KC II 21%, so Tacoma Defiance are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Tacoma Defiance and 1.2 for Sporting KC II (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tacoma Defiance are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.73 for Sporting KC II. This match finished 4-0.

Tacoma Defiance vs Sporting KC II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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