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Ventura County vs Portland Timbers II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 02:00

Ventura County

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

UPCOMING

Portland Timbers II

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-16.7%0-23.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.3%1-111.4%1-25.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.7%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.4%3-15.5%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 40.0% 2.50 +31.0%

Draw 24.1% 27.0% 3.70 -6.5%

Away win 23.4% 44.4% 2.25 -28.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 69.4% 1.44 -23.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 52.6% 1.90 -40.2%

BTTS 54.3% 73.5% 1.36 -26.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 55.6% 1.80 -12.0%

Away O1.5 32.4% 58.5% 1.71 -44.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.3%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ventura County1.7

Portland Timbers II1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VENTURA COUNTY · PPG 2.17

PORTLAND TIMBERS II · PPG 2.33

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ventura County (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +31.0%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.5%

Portland Timbers II (A) 23.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -28.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ventura County face Portland Timbers II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ventura County a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Portland Timbers II 23%, so Ventura County are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Ventura County and 1.0 for Portland Timbers II (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ventura County are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 2.33 for Portland Timbers II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.4%.

Ventura County vs Portland Timbers II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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