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Austin II vs The Town Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 00:30

Austin II

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

The Town

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.5%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.6%1-19.5%1-24.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.0%3-16.9%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-15.9%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% 52.4% 1.91 +8.1%

Draw 21.9% 28.6% 3.50 -14.0%

Away win 21.4% 31.3% 3.20 -18.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 45.5% 2.20 -19.3%

BTTS 54.0% 63.7% 1.57 -15.2%

Home O1.5 59.6% 56.8% 1.76 +4.9%

Away O1.5 29.4% 40.3% 2.48 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.0%

H 57% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0✓ 9.6%

#5 1–2 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Austin II2.1

The Town1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AUSTIN II · PPG 2.17

THE TOWN · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Austin II (H) 56.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +8.1%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.0%

The Town (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Austin II face The Town in USA - MLS Next Pro on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Austin II a 57% chance, the draw 22% and The Town 21%, so Austin II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Austin II and 1.0 for The Town (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Austin II are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.17 for The Town. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Austin II vs The Town Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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