Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / St. Louis City II vs Houston Dynamo FC II

St. Louis City II vs Houston Dynamo FC II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 23:00

St. Louis City II

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDD

UPCOMING

Houston Dynamo FC II

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-18.0%0-25.8%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.0%1-111.6%1-28.4%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.4%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.8%3-14.1%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 48.8% 2.05 -13.7%

Draw 23.9% 30.3% 3.30 -12.7%

Away win 34.0% 34.5% 2.90 -1.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 61.7% 1.62 -12.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 47.2% 2.12 -33.0%

BTTS 54.7% 65.4% 1.53 -16.3%

Home O1.5 40.0% 62.5% 1.60 -36.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 47.2% 2.12 -12.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.7%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 1–0 8.0%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Louis City II1.5

Houston Dynamo FC II1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. LOUIS CITY II · PPG 1.64

HOUSTON DYNAMO FC II · PPG 1.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

St. Louis City II (H) 42.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -13.7%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.7%

Houston Dynamo FC II (A) 34.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Louis City II face Houston Dynamo FC II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Louis City II a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Houston Dynamo FC II 34%, so St. Louis City II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for St. Louis City II and 1.4 for Houston Dynamo FC II (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Louis City II are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.55 for Houston Dynamo FC II. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.0%.

St. Louis City II vs Houston Dynamo FC II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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