Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / New York RB II vs Toronto II
New York RB II vs Toronto II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro
Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 23:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 79 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 56% / xG 2.8-1.4 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 63%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.8% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%
Form & verdict
NEW YORK RB II · PPG 1.73
TORONTO II · PPG 0.92
xG gap +1.36 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
New York RB II face Toronto II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York RB II a 56% chance, the draw 20% and Toronto II 24%, so New York RB II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for New York RB II and 1.4 for Toronto II (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York RB II are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.92 for Toronto II. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 5-1.