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Crown Legacy vs Chattanooga Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 23:00

Crown Legacy

PPG 2.09 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Chattanooga

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.5% — a clear edge.

+11.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.3%0-22.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.2%1-17.9%1-25.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.3%2-19.3%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.8%3-17.4%3-24.7%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-17.7%4+-24.9%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 45.5% 2.20 +16.8%

Draw 22.5% 30.3% 3.30 -15.4%

Away win 24.4% 38.2% 2.62 -21.6%

Over 2.5 64.6% 63.7% 1.57 +1.4%

Over 3.5 43.5% 47.2% 2.12 -7.8%

BTTS 61.3% 69.4% 1.44 -11.7%

Home O1.5 65.1% 58.5% 1.71 +11.3%

Away O1.5 37.3% 49.5% 2.02 -24.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.3%

H 53% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 5.0%

#4 3–1✓ 7.4%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crown Legacy2.4

Chattanooga1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CROWN LEGACY · PPG 2.09

CHATTANOOGA · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Crown Legacy (H) 53.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +16.8%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.4%

Chattanooga (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crown Legacy face Chattanooga in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crown Legacy a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Chattanooga 24%, so Crown Legacy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Crown Legacy and 1.3 for Chattanooga (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crown Legacy are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.27 for Chattanooga. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +25.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Crown Legacy vs Chattanooga Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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