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Chicago Fire II vs Inter Miami II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 20:00

Chicago Fire II

PPG 2.09 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Inter Miami II

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.63 for Home, form 2.09 vs 0.17 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.2%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.9%1-14.0%1-21.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.4%2-16.8%2-22.8%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.6%3-17.8%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-019.9%4+-116.3%4+-26.6%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.6% 73.5% 1.36 -5.3%

Draw 15.9% 21.7% 4.60 -16.1%

Away win 14.5% 16.7% 6.00 -7.8%

Over 2.5 68.9% 78.1% 1.28 -11.8%

Over 3.5 48.1% 59.5% 1.68 -19.2%

BTTS 54.7% 71.4% 1.40 -23.4%

Home O1.5 78.4% — — —

Away O1.5 22.5% 37.9% 2.64 -24.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.7%

H 70% / xG 3.4-0.8 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.6%

#2 1–1 4.0%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 4–0 8.3%

#5 3–1✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chicago Fire II3.4

Inter Miami II0.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CHICAGO FIRE II · PPG 2.09

INTER MIAMI II · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.63 for Home, form 2.09 vs 0.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Chicago Fire II (H) 69.6%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -5.3%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -16.1%

Inter Miami II (A) 14.5%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chicago Fire II face Inter Miami II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chicago Fire II a 70% chance, the draw 16% and Inter Miami II 14%, so Chicago Fire II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Chicago Fire II and 0.8 for Inter Miami II (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chicago Fire II are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.17 for Inter Miami II. This match finished 3-1.

Chicago Fire II vs Inter Miami II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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