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Boca Unidos vs Sportivo Las Parejas Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Boca Unidos

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sportivo Las Parejas

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+24.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-17.6%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.3%1-111.2%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-18.3%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.7%3-14.1%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% 44.4% 2.25 +24.0%

Draw 27.0% 34.5% 2.90 -13.0%

Away win 17.9% 33.3% 3.00 -27.8%

Over 2.5 42.4% 38.2% 2.62 +11.1%

Over 3.5 20.6% 20.0% 5.00 +1.8%

BTTS 43.6% 45.5% 2.20 -4.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 36.4% 2.75 +10.0%

Away O1.5 16.6% 28.6% 3.50 -25.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.6%

H 55% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 18.3%

#2 2–0 13.5%

#3 0–0 12.4%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boca Unidos1.5

Sportivo Las Parejas0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BOCA UNIDOS · PPG 1.78

SPORTIVO LAS PAREJAS · PPG 0.73

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Boca Unidos (H) 55.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +24.0%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.0%

Sportivo Las Parejas (A) 17.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boca Unidos face Sportivo Las Parejas in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boca Unidos a 55% chance, the draw 27% and Sportivo Las Parejas 18%, so Boca Unidos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Boca Unidos and 0.6 for Sportivo Las Parejas (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boca Unidos are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.73 for Sportivo Las Parejas. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Boca Unidos vs Sportivo Las Parejas Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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