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Sarmiento de La Banda vs Sportivo Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Sarmiento de La Banda

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Sportivo Belgrano

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.9%0-113.2%0-24.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.5%1-112.3%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.1%2-15.8%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.8%3-11.8%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 50.0% 2.00 -12.6%

Draw 32.5% 34.7% 2.88 -6.4%

Away win 23.8% 26.3% 3.80 -5.7%

Over 2.5 34.5% 38.2% 2.62 -9.6%

Over 3.5 18.2% 20.0% 5.00 -5.4%

BTTS 43.6% 44.4% 2.25 -1.9%

Home O1.5 30.6% 40.0% 2.50 -23.5%

Away O1.5 16.9% 23.1% 4.33 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.6%

H 44% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.5%

#2 0–0 20.9%

#3 0–1 13.2%

#4 1–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarmiento de La Banda0.9

Sportivo Belgrano0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SARMIENTO DE LA BANDA · PPG 2.00

SPORTIVO BELGRANO · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.30, combined xG 1.57 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sarmiento de La Banda (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -12.6%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -6.4%

Sportivo Belgrano (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarmiento de La Banda face Sportivo Belgrano in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarmiento de La Banda a 44% chance, the draw 33% and Sportivo Belgrano 24%, so Sarmiento de La Banda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sarmiento de La Banda and 0.6 for Sportivo Belgrano (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarmiento de La Banda are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.36 for Sportivo Belgrano. This match finished 3-0.

Sarmiento de La Banda vs Sportivo Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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