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San Martin Formosa vs 9 de Julio Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

San Martin Formosa

PPG 2.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

9 de Julio Rafaela

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.2% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.5%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.4%1-16.6%1-23.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.0%2-19.0%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-18.1%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-110.5%4+-24.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.2% 65.4% 1.53 -0.2%

Draw 19.3% 29.4% 3.40 -20.6%

Away win 15.5% 16.0% 6.25 -1.9%

Over 2.5 63.1% 46.5% 2.15 +35.7%

Over 3.5 40.5% 26.7% 3.75 +51.9%

BTTS 54.7% 45.5% 2.20 +20.3%

Home O1.5 65.1% 55.6% 1.80 +17.2%

Away O1.5 22.8% 18.2% 5.50 +15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 65% / xG 2.7-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.6%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 3–0 9.0%

#4 2–1✓ 9.0%

#5 3–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martin Formosa2.7

9 de Julio Rafaela0.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTIN FORMOSA · PPG 2.60

9 DE JULIO RAFAELA · PPG 0.70

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.81 for Home, form 2.60 vs 0.70 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

San Martin Formosa (H) 65.2%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -0.2%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -20.6%

9 de Julio Rafaela (A) 15.5%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martin Formosa face 9 de Julio Rafaela in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martin Formosa a 65% chance, the draw 19% and 9 de Julio Rafaela 16%, so San Martin Formosa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for San Martin Formosa and 0.9 for 9 de Julio Rafaela (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martin Formosa are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.70 for 9 de Julio Rafaela. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +51.9%. This match finished 2-1.

San Martin Formosa vs 9 de Julio Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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