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Bartolomé Mitre vs Douglas Haig Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Bartolomé Mitre

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Douglas Haig

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.9%0-110.4%0-22.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.3%1-110.6%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.9%2-15.4%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.0%3-11.8%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 47.6% 2.10 -4.5%

Draw 31.9% 36.4% 2.75 -12.3%

Away win 22.5% 28.6% 3.50 -12.8%

Over 2.5 34.5% 42.0% 2.38 -17.9%

Over 3.5 18.2% 23.1% 4.33 -12.7%

BTTS 43.6% 50.0% 2.00 -12.8%

Home O1.5 30.6% 40.0% 2.50 -23.5%

Away O1.5 15.0% 26.7% 3.75 -26.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.6%

H 46% / xG 1.0-0.5 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 23.3%

#2 0–0 22.9%

#3 0–1 10.4%

#4 2–0 11.9%

#5 1–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bartolomé Mitre1.0

Douglas Haig0.5

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BARTOLOMÉ MITRE · PPG 2.11

DOUGLAS HAIG · PPG 1.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bartolomé Mitre (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -4.5%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.3%

Douglas Haig (A) 22.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bartolomé Mitre face Douglas Haig in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bartolomé Mitre a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Douglas Haig 23%, so Bartolomé Mitre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Bartolomé Mitre and 0.5 for Douglas Haig (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bartolomé Mitre are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.09 for Douglas Haig. This match finished 0-3.

Bartolomé Mitre vs Douglas Haig Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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