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Telstar vs Sparta Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 31 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 18:00

Telstar

PPG 0.93 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sparta

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.3%0-24.7%0-32.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.1%1-110.6%1-27.8%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-06.0%2-18.8%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.3%3-14.9%3-23.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.0%4+-22.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 43.9% 2.28 -3.3%

Draw 23.5% 27.0% 3.70 -13.1%

Away win 34.1% 36.2% 2.76 -5.9%

Over 2.5 61.1% 63.7% 1.57 -4.1%

Over 3.5 38.7% 41.7% 2.40 -7.1%

BTTS 62.8% 67.6% 1.48 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.8%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 1–0 7.1%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Telstar1.7

Sparta1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TELSTAR · PPG 0.93

SPARTA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.93) vs Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Telstar (H) 42.4%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -3.3%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -13.1%

Sparta (A) 34.1%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Telstar face Sparta in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Telstar a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Sparta 34%, so Telstar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Telstar and 1.5 for Sparta (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Telstar are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.33 for Sparta. This match finished 4-1.

Telstar vs Sparta Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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