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Philadelphia Union II vs Connecticut FC Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Philadelphia Union II

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLW

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Connecticut FC

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.4%0-24.9%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.5%1-111.5%1-27.7%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.7%2-19.0%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.5%3-14.7%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% 32.3% 3.10 +33.6%

Draw 23.5% 28.6% 3.50 -10.7%

Away win 33.4% 52.4% 1.91 -36.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 50.5% 1.98 -27.5%

BTTS 61.3% 73.5% 1.36 -16.6%

Home O1.5 45.7% 49.8% 2.01 -8.1%

Away O1.5 41.2% 63.3% 1.58 -34.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.3%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 2–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Philadelphia Union II1.6

Connecticut FC1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PHILADELPHIA UNION II · PPG 1.55

CONNECTICUT FC · PPG 1.73

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Philadelphia Union II (H) 43.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +33.6%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.7%

Connecticut FC (A) 33.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -36.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Philadelphia Union II face Connecticut FC in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Philadelphia Union II a 43% chance, the draw 24% and Connecticut FC 33%, so Philadelphia Union II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Philadelphia Union II and 1.3 for Connecticut FC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Philadelphia Union II are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.73 for Connecticut FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.1%. This match finished 2-4.

Philadelphia Union II vs Connecticut FC Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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