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Independiente De Chivilcoy vs Tucuman Central Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:30

Independiente De Chivilcoy

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Tucuman Central

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-15.7%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.3%1-110.5%1-24.5%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.1%3-16.1%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 67.6% 1.48 -20.8%

Draw 23.1% 28.6% 3.50 -11.5%

Away win 23.4% 16.0% 6.25 +27.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 42.6% 2.35 +26.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 23.1% 4.33 +36.8%

BTTS 53.4% 40.0% 2.50 +33.5%

Home O1.5 54.9% 54.6% 1.83 +0.5%

Away O1.5 22.8% 16.7% 6.00 +22.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.4%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0✓ 11.5%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente De Chivilcoy1.9

Tucuman Central0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE DE CHIVILCOY · PPG 1.30

TUCUMAN CENTRAL · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente De Chivilcoy (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -20.8%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.5%

Tucuman Central (A) 23.4%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente De Chivilcoy face Tucuman Central in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente De Chivilcoy a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Tucuman Central 23%, so Independiente De Chivilcoy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Independiente De Chivilcoy and 0.9 for Tucuman Central (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente De Chivilcoy are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.00 for Tucuman Central. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +63.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Independiente De Chivilcoy vs Tucuman Central Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Torneo Federal A Predictions