Today / Argentina - Torneo Federal A / Defensores de Vilelas vs El Linqueño
Defensores de Vilelas vs El Linqueño Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A
Losers Stage · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:30
// Model verdict
Home Over 1.5
Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 122 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 55% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 53%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%
Form & verdict
DEFENSORES DE VILELAS · PPG 1.90
EL LINQUEÑO · PPG 0.50
xG gap +1.26 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Defensores de Vilelas face El Linqueño in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores de Vilelas a 55% chance, the draw 22% and El Linqueño 23%, so Defensores de Vilelas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Defensores de Vilelas and 0.9 for El Linqueño (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores de Vilelas are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.50 for El Linqueño. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +51.5%. This match finished 0-0.