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Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Kimberley Mar del Plata Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:30

Olimpo Bahia Blanca

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Kimberley Mar del Plata

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-032.6%0-19.0%0-21.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-027.5%1-17.6%1-21.1%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.6%2-13.2%2-20.4%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.3%3-10.9%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.2%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 58.8% 1.70 -23.2%

Draw 33.8% 33.3% 3.00 +1.4%

Away win 21.1% 20.0% 5.00 +3.3%

Over 2.5 31.8% 38.2% 2.62 -16.7%

Over 3.5 12.5% 20.0% 5.00 -22.5%

BTTS 31.8% 40.0% 2.50 -20.5%

Home O1.5 30.6% 45.5% 2.20 -32.7%

Away O1.5 11.1% 18.2% 5.50 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob31.8%

H 45% / xG 0.8-0.3 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 32.6%

#2 1–0✓ 27.5%

#3 0–1 9.0%

#4 2–0 11.6%

#5 1–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olimpo Bahia Blanca0.8

Kimberley Mar del Plata0.3

COMBINED 1.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIMPO BAHIA BLANCA · PPG 2.20

KIMBERLEY MAR DEL PLATA · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Olimpo Bahia Blanca (H) 45.2%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -23.2%

Draw 33.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +1.4%

Kimberley Mar del Plata (A) 21.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olimpo Bahia Blanca face Kimberley Mar del Plata in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olimpo Bahia Blanca a 45% chance, the draw 34% and Kimberley Mar del Plata 21%, so Olimpo Bahia Blanca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Olimpo Bahia Blanca and 0.3 for Kimberley Mar del Plata (1.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olimpo Bahia Blanca are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.44 for Kimberley Mar del Plata. This match finished 1-0.

Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Kimberley Mar del Plata Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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