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Cipolletti vs Atenas Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:30

Cipolletti

PPG 2.30 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Atenas

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-17.0%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.9%1-111.4%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.1%2-19.3%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.5%3-15.0%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-12.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Draw 24.3% 34.5% 2.90 -17.7%

Away win 23.4% 22.2% 4.50 +3.2%

Over 2.5 50.1% 33.3% 3.00 +50.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 16.7% 6.00 +41.2%

BTTS 49.1% 38.2% 2.62 +28.6%

Home O1.5 47.4% 40.0% 2.50 +18.5%

Away O1.5 17.9% 18.2% 5.50 -0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.9%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 2–0 12.1%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cipolletti1.6

Atenas0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CIPOLLETTI · PPG 2.30

ATENAS · PPG 1.44

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cipolletti (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -5.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.7%

Atenas (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cipolletti face Atenas in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cipolletti a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Atenas 23%, so Cipolletti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Cipolletti and 0.8 for Atenas (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cipolletti are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 1.44 for Atenas. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +50.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Cipolletti vs Atenas Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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