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Alvarado vs Argentino Monte Maíz Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:30

Alvarado

PPG 2.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Argentino Monte Maíz

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.9%0-14.4%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.9%1-17.1%1-21.1%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-019.2%2-15.7%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.3%3-13.1%3-20.5%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 70.4% 1.42 -3.4%

Draw 24.0% 27.8% 3.60 -8.2%

Away win 8.0% 13.3% 7.50 -24.0%

Over 2.5 38.0% 40.0% 2.50 -5.0%

Over 3.5 18.4% 22.2% 4.50 -10.3%

BTTS 31.8% 33.3% 3.00 -4.6%

Home O1.5 47.4% 54.3% 1.84 -12.8%

Away O1.5 11.1% 11.1% 9.00 -0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob31.8%

H 68% / xG 1.6-0.3 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 23.9%

#2 2–0 19.2%

#3 0–0 14.9%

#4 3–0 10.3%

#5 1–1✓ 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alvarado1.6

Argentino Monte Maíz0.3

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALVARADO · PPG 2.56

ARGENTINO MONTE MAÍZ · PPG 0.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.31 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alvarado (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -3.4%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.2%

Argentino Monte Maíz (A) 8.0%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV -24.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alvarado face Argentino Monte Maíz in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alvarado a 68% chance, the draw 24% and Argentino Monte Maíz 8%, so Alvarado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Alvarado and 0.3 for Argentino Monte Maíz (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alvarado are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 0.70 for Argentino Monte Maíz. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Alvarado vs Argentino Monte Maíz Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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