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Guillermo Brown vs Santamarina Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:00

Guillermo Brown

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Santamarina

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-17.5%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.0%1-111.0%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-18.0%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.8%3-13.9%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 57.1% 1.75 -9.0%

Draw 26.3% 32.3% 3.10 -11.1%

Away win 21.7% 22.2% 4.50 -1.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 42.0% 2.38 +1.6%

Over 3.5 20.6% 22.2% 4.50 -4.4%

BTTS 47.6% 44.4% 2.25 +7.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 45.5% 2.20 -12.0%

Away O1.5 16.4% 22.2% 4.50 -15.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.6%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 19.0%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 2–0 13.9%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 0–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guillermo Brown1.5

Santamarina0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GUILLERMO BROWN · PPG 1.56

SANTAMARINA · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guillermo Brown (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -9.0%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.1%

Santamarina (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guillermo Brown face Santamarina in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guillermo Brown a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Santamarina 22%, so Guillermo Brown are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Guillermo Brown and 0.6 for Santamarina (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guillermo Brown are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.40 for Santamarina. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Guillermo Brown vs Santamarina Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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