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Germinal de Rawson vs San Martín Mendoza Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:00

Germinal de Rawson

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

San Martín Mendoza

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.2%0-19.2%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.4%1-110.8%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.1%2-16.3%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.1%3-12.5%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 52.6% 1.90 -6.5%

Draw 29.4% 33.3% 3.00 -7.1%

Away win 21.4% 25.0% 4.00 -8.6%

Over 2.5 34.5% 38.2% 2.62 -9.6%

Over 3.5 18.2% 20.0% 5.00 -5.4%

BTTS 43.6% 44.4% 2.25 -1.9%

Home O1.5 31.8% 40.0% 2.50 -20.5%

Away O1.5 16.4% 23.1% 4.33 -17.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.6%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.5 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.4%

#2 0–0✓ 19.2%

#3 2–0 13.1%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 1–1 10.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Germinal de Rawson1.2

San Martín Mendoza0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GERMINAL DE RAWSON · PPG 2.10

SAN MARTÍN MENDOZA · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Germinal de Rawson (H) 49.2%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -6.5%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.1%

San Martín Mendoza (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Germinal de Rawson face San Martín Mendoza in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Germinal de Rawson a 49% chance, the draw 29% and San Martín Mendoza 21%, so Germinal de Rawson are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Germinal de Rawson and 0.5 for San Martín Mendoza (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Germinal de Rawson are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.67 for San Martín Mendoza. This match finished 0-0.

Germinal de Rawson vs San Martín Mendoza Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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