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Fundacion Amigos vs Sol de Mayo Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:30

Fundacion Amigos

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sol de Mayo

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-17.4%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.6%1-111.0%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-18.2%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.9%3-14.1%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 61.7% 1.62 -15.8%

Draw 26.3% 30.3% 3.30 -7.9%

Away win 21.7% 19.0% 5.25 +8.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 46.5% 2.15 -8.2%

Over 3.5 21.1% 25.0% 4.00 -9.4%

BTTS 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Home O1.5 40.0% 52.4% 1.91 -23.6%

Away O1.5 16.4% 22.2% 4.50 -15.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.6%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.6%

#2 0–0 12.4%

#3 2–0✓ 13.9%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 0–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fundacion Amigos1.5

Sol de Mayo0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FUNDACION AMIGOS · PPG 1.70

SOL DE MAYO · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fundacion Amigos (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -15.8%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.9%

Sol de Mayo (A) 21.7%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fundacion Amigos face Sol de Mayo in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fundacion Amigos a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Sol de Mayo 22%, so Fundacion Amigos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Fundacion Amigos and 0.6 for Sol de Mayo (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fundacion Amigos are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.78 for Sol de Mayo. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Fundacion Amigos vs Sol de Mayo Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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