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Lokomotiv M. vs Zenit Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 26 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 16:45

Lokomotiv M.

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Zenit

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 56.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-17.5%0-25.6%0-32.8%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.4%1-111.2%1-28.4%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.5%2-18.4%2-26.3%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.8%3-14.2%3-23.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 28.7% 3.48 +30.9%

Draw 24.3% 28.7% 3.48 -15.4%

Away win 38.1% 45.9% 2.18 -16.9%

Over 2.5 57.8% 49.8% 2.01 +16.2%

Over 3.5 35.4% 29.9% 3.35 +18.6%

BTTS 60.5% 56.8% 1.76 +6.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.5%

A 38% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 0–1 7.5%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokomotiv M.1.5

Zenit1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKOMOTIV M. · PPG 2.17

ZENIT · PPG 1.67

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.17) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Lokomotiv M. (H) 37.6%

ODDS 3.48 · IMPLIED 28.7% EV +30.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.48 · IMPLIED 28.7% EV -15.4%

Zenit (A) 38.1%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokomotiv M. face Zenit in Russia - Premier League on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokomotiv M. a 38% chance, the draw 24% and Zenit 38%, so Zenit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Lokomotiv M. and 1.5 for Zenit (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokomotiv M. are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.67 for Zenit. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Lokomotiv M. vs Zenit Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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