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Dinamo Moscow vs Rubin Kazan Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 26 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 16:45

Dinamo Moscow

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Rubin Kazan

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLD

// Model verdict

Home 63% chance

Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.9%0-22.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.6%1-19.9%1-24.6%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.1%3-16.6%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-15.3%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.3% 63.7% 1.57 -2.2%

Draw 20.9% 23.8% 4.20 -12.2%

Away win 16.7% 15.9% 6.30 +5.2%

Over 2.5 56.2% 50.8% 1.97 +10.7%

Over 3.5 33.9% 30.5% 3.28 +11.2%

BTTS 52.4% 50.5% 1.98 +3.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 58%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.4%

H 62% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 1–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Moscow2.0

Rubin Kazan0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.2% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO MOSCOW · PPG 1.33

RUBIN KAZAN · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Moscow (H) 62.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -2.2%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -12.2%

Rubin Kazan (A) 16.7%

ODDS 6.30 · IMPLIED 15.9% EV +5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Moscow face Rubin Kazan in Russia - Premier League on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Moscow a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Rubin Kazan 17%, so Dinamo Moscow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Dinamo Moscow and 0.9 for Rubin Kazan (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Moscow are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.83 for Rubin Kazan. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Dinamo Moscow vs Rubin Kazan Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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