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Barnsley U21 vs Charlton Athletic U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Regular Season ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 12:00

Barnsley U21

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WDW ··

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Charlton Athletic U21

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.5%0-22.3%0-31.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-03.4%1-16.2%1-25.6%1-33.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.2%2-17.6%2-26.9%2-34.2%2-4+2.9%3 3-03.4%3-16.3%3-25.7%3-33.4%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-16.9%4+-26.3%4+-33.8%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 43.5% 2.30 +14.3%

Draw 23.4% 27.8% 3.60 -9.5%

Away win 26.9% 40.8% 2.45 -20.5%

Over 2.5 65.0% 73.5% 1.36 -11.6%

Over 3.5 45.0% 53.2% 1.88 -15.4%

BTTS 63.2% 74.1% 1.35 -14.7%

Home O1.5 65.1% 58.5% 1.71 +11.3%

Away O1.5 49.9% 58.8% 1.70 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 21%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.2%

H 50% / xG 2.5-1.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.2%

#2 2–2✓ 6.9%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 3–1 6.3%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barnsley U212.5

Charlton Athletic U211.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BARNSLEY U21 · PPG 1.36

CHARLTON ATHLETIC U21 · PPG 1.26

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Barnsley U21 (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +14.3%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.5%

Charlton Athletic U21 (A) 26.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -20.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barnsley U21 face Charlton Athletic U21 in England - Professional Development League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barnsley U21 a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Charlton Athletic U21 27%, so Barnsley U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Barnsley U21 and 1.8 for Charlton Athletic U21 (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barnsley U21 are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.26 for Charlton Athletic U21. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Barnsley U21 vs Charlton Athletic U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Match Preview & Prediction

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