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Zlín II vs Hodonín Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 08:30

Zlín II

PPG 1.96 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hodonín

PPG 1.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.0%0-24.4%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.2%1-110.4%1-27.6%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-19.0%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.6%3-15.2%3-23.8%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.3%4+-22.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 41.7% 2.40 +12.6%

Draw 24.0% 28.2% 3.55 -8.9%

Away win 29.1% 41.7% 2.40 -18.1%

Over 2.5 59.9% 66.7% 1.50 -10.2%

Over 3.5 36.8% 42.9% 2.33 -14.3%

BTTS 61.3% 69.4% 1.44 -11.7%

Home O1.5 48.8% 51.3% 1.95 -4.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 50.3% 1.99 -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 35.9%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.3%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–0 6.2%

#5 1–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zlín II1.7

Hodonín1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ZLÍN II · PPG 1.96

HODONÍN · PPG 1.72

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zlín II (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +12.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.9%

Hodonín (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zlín II face Hodonín in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zlín II a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Hodonín 29%, so Zlín II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Zlín II and 1.5 for Hodonín (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zlín II are averaging 1.96 points per game versus 1.72 for Hodonín. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Zlín II vs Hodonín Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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