Today / Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL / Karviná II vs Polanka nad Odrou

Karviná II vs Polanka nad Odrou Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 08:15

Karviná II

PPG 1.35 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Polanka nad Odrou

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-17.7%0-23.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.3%1-112.0%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.4%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.0%3-14.9%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 57.1% 1.75 -11.3%

Draw 24.9% 27.0% 3.70 -4.7%

Away win 24.5% 27.8% 3.60 -7.1%

Over 2.5 50.9% 63.7% 1.57 -20.1%

Over 3.5 30.9% 44.4% 2.25 -30.5%

BTTS 53.0% 66.7% 1.50 -20.5%

Home O1.5 45.9% 62.9% 1.59 -27.0%

Away O1.5 28.6% 39.4% 2.54 -16.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 35.9%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 2–1✓ 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karviná II1.6

Polanka nad Odrou1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KARVINÁ II · PPG 1.35

POLANKA NAD ODROU · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Karviná II (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -11.3%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.7%

Polanka nad Odrou (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karviná II face Polanka nad Odrou in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karviná II a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Polanka nad Odrou 25%, so Karviná II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Karviná II and 1.0 for Polanka nad Odrou (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karviná II are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.14 for Polanka nad Odrou. This match finished 2-1.

Karviná II vs Polanka nad Odrou Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL Predictions