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Sigma Olomouc II vs Blansko Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 08:15

Sigma Olomouc II

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Blansko

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.3%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.7%1-14.4%1-22.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.0%2-17.3%2-24.4%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.6%3-18.0%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-012.5%4+-115.1%4+-29.1%4+-33.7%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 82.0% 1.22 -17.0%

Draw 16.2% 18.2% 5.50 -6.5%

Away win 15.9% 11.9% 8.40 +20.1%

Over 2.5 73.1% 75.2% 1.33 -2.8%

Over 3.5 53.8% 57.1% 1.75 -5.9%

BTTS 63.2% 60.6% 1.65 +4.3%

Home O1.5 78.4% 78.1% 1.28 +0.4%

Away O1.5 37.3% 24.4% 4.10 +52.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 35.9%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.2%

H 68% / xG 3.3-1.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 7.3%

#3 1–1 4.4%

#4 3–0✓ 6.6%

#5 4–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sigma Olomouc II3.3

Blansko1.2

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.1% · O3.5 PROB 53.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SIGMA OLOMOUC II · PPG 1.86

BLANSKO · PPG 0.95

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.08 for Home, form 1.86 vs 0.95 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sigma Olomouc II (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -17.0%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -6.5%

Blansko (A) 15.9%

ODDS 8.40 · IMPLIED 11.9% EV +20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sigma Olomouc II face Blansko in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sigma Olomouc II a 68% chance, the draw 16% and Blansko 16%, so Sigma Olomouc II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Sigma Olomouc II and 1.2 for Blansko (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sigma Olomouc II are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.95 for Blansko. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +52.9%. This match finished 3-0.

Sigma Olomouc II vs Blansko Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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