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North Texas vs Minnesota United II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 00:45

North Texas

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDD

UPCOMING

Minnesota United II

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.5%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.8%1-110.4%1-25.5%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.9%3-16.3%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.6%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 37.0% 2.70 +41.5%

Draw 23.7% 30.3% 3.30 -13.1%

Away win 23.9% 45.5% 2.20 -28.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 66.7% 1.50 -19.1%

Over 3.5 34.4% 47.6% 2.10 -27.8%

BTTS 54.7% 71.4% 1.40 -23.4%

Home O1.5 54.9% 51.5% 1.94 +6.5%

Away O1.5 34.1% 57.1% 1.75 -40.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Texas1.9

Minnesota United II1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH TEXAS · PPG 1.60

MINNESOTA UNITED II · PPG 1.09

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

North Texas (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +41.5%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.1%

Minnesota United II (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -28.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

North Texas face Minnesota United II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Texas a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Minnesota United II 24%, so North Texas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for North Texas and 1.1 for Minnesota United II (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Texas are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.09 for Minnesota United II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.8%.

North Texas vs Minnesota United II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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