Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / Carolina Core vs FC Cincinnati II

Carolina Core vs FC Cincinnati II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:30

Carolina Core

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

FC Cincinnati II

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-13.3%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.8%1-17.9%1-23.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-19.5%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.6%3-17.7%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-18.2%4+-23.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.5% 64.5% 1.55 -4.7%

Draw 18.4% 26.3% 3.80 -18.1%

Away win 20.1% 21.7% 4.60 -4.5%

Over 2.5 64.7% 69.4% 1.44 -6.8%

Over 3.5 43.5% 46.1% 2.17 -5.6%

BTTS 58.6% 65.4% 1.53 -10.3%

Home O1.5 65.1% 69.0% 1.45 -5.6%

Away O1.5 22.8% 35.2% 2.84 -21.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob58.6%

H 62% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.6%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 3–0 8.6%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carolina Core2.4

FC Cincinnati II0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CAROLINA CORE · PPG 1.58

FC CINCINNATI II · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.52 for Home, form 1.58 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Carolina Core (H) 61.5%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -4.7%

Draw 18.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -18.1%

FC Cincinnati II (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carolina Core face FC Cincinnati II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carolina Core a 62% chance, the draw 18% and FC Cincinnati II 20%, so Carolina Core are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Carolina Core and 0.9 for FC Cincinnati II (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carolina Core are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 0.00 for FC Cincinnati II. This match finished 1-3.

Carolina Core vs FC Cincinnati II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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