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New York City II vs New England II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 21:00

New York City II

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

New England II

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.8%0-23.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.9%1-110.5%1-26.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.3%3-15.7%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.8%4+-22.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 40.8% 2.45 +22.5%

Draw 22.1% 30.3% 3.30 -16.2%

Away win 27.9% 42.0% 2.38 -20.2%

Over 2.5 63.1% 69.4% 1.44 -9.1%

Over 3.5 40.5% 49.5% 2.02 -18.2%

BTTS 62.2% 71.4% 1.40 -12.9%

Home O1.5 48.8% 54.6% 1.83 -10.7%

Away O1.5 41.2% 56.5% 1.77 -27.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.2%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1✓ 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New York City II1.8

New England II1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW YORK CITY II · PPG 1.91

NEW ENGLAND II · PPG 1.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

New York City II (H) 50.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +22.5%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.2%

New England II (A) 27.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -20.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

New York City II face New England II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York City II a 50% chance, the draw 22% and New England II 28%, so New York City II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for New York City II and 1.3 for New England II (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York City II are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.80 for New England II. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.1%. This match finished 2-1.

New York City II vs New England II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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