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Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:30

Fenerbahçe

PPG 2.01 · HOME

LAST 5

LWW ··

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Konyaspor

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLL ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.5%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.6%1-19.5%1-24.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.0%3-16.9%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-15.9%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 78.1% 1.28 -31.9%

Draw 24.7% 18.2% 5.50 +21.5%

Away win 22.2% 10.9% 9.20 +62.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 66.7% 1.50 -19.1%

Over 3.5 33.4% 44.4% 2.25 -24.9%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 59.6% 75.2% 1.33 -20.7%

Away O1.5 29.1% 22.2% 4.50 +18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 1–2 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fenerbahçe2.1

Konyaspor1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FENERBAHÇE · PPG 2.01

KONYASPOR · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fenerbahçe (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -31.9%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +21.5%

Konyaspor (A) 22.2%

ODDS 9.20 · IMPLIED 10.9% EV +62.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fenerbahçe face Konyaspor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fenerbahçe a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Konyaspor 22%, so Fenerbahçe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Fenerbahçe and 1.0 for Konyaspor (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.01 points per game versus 1.14 for Konyaspor. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +43.7%. This match finished 4-2.

Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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