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Circulo Deportivo vs Costa Brava Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:00

Circulo Deportivo

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Costa Brava

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-029.4%0-114.2%0-23.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.7%1-110.5%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.0%2-13.9%2-20.9%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.0%3-11.0%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% 32.3% 3.10 +14.7%

Draw 38.2% 37.0% 2.70 +3.1%

Away win 24.8% 42.6% 2.35 -25.0%

Over 2.5 26.2% 30.8% 3.25 -8.9%

Over 3.5 12.0% 15.4% 6.50 -13.2%

BTTS 31.8% 40.0% 2.50 -20.5%

Home O1.5 30.6% 31.1% 3.22 -1.5%

Away O1.5 16.4% 32.3% 3.10 -29.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob31.8%

H 37% / xG 0.7-0.5 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 29.4%

#2 1–0 21.7%

#3 0–1✓ 14.2%

#4 1–1 10.5%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Circulo Deportivo0.7

Costa Brava0.5

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.2% · O3.5 PROB 12.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CIRCULO DEPORTIVO · PPG 1.44

COSTA BRAVA · PPG 0.70

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.26, combined xG 1.23 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Circulo Deportivo (H) 37.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +14.7%

Draw 38.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +3.1%

Costa Brava (A) 24.8%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -25.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Circulo Deportivo face Costa Brava in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Circulo Deportivo a 37% chance, the draw 38% and Costa Brava 25%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Circulo Deportivo and 0.5 for Costa Brava (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Circulo Deportivo are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.70 for Costa Brava. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Circulo Deportivo vs Costa Brava Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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