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Atlanta United II vs Orlando City II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:00

Atlanta United II

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Orlando City II

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.6%0-21.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.9%1-16.8%1-24.7%1-32.2%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.3%2-18.7%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.4%3-17.5%3-25.2%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-19.0%4+-26.2%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 61.7% 1.62 -8.8%

Draw 20.7% 26.3% 3.80 -12.8%

Away win 23.0% 25.0% 4.00 -4.8%

Over 2.5 67.3% 73.5% 1.36 -8.5%

Over 3.5 45.3% 54.1% 1.85 -16.2%

BTTS 63.2% 73.5% 1.36 -14.1%

Home O1.5 65.1% 72.5% 1.38 -10.2%

Away O1.5 41.2% 43.5% 2.30 -5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 56% / xG 2.6-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.8%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 3–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.0%

#5 1–2 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlanta United II2.6

Orlando City II1.4

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLANTA UNITED II · PPG 2.00

ORLANDO CITY II · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.20 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atlanta United II (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -8.8%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.8%

Orlando City II (A) 23.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlanta United II face Orlando City II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlanta United II a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Orlando City II 23%, so Atlanta United II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Atlanta United II and 1.4 for Orlando City II (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlanta United II are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Orlando City II. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +11.0%. This match finished 5-1.

Atlanta United II vs Orlando City II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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