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Orenburg vs Nizhny Novgorod Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 26 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 14:30

Orenburg

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Nizhny Novgorod

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLD

// Model verdict

Home 53% chance

Model probability 58.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.8% — a clear edge.

+15.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-16.8%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.7%1-111.3%1-24.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.1%2-19.3%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.7%3-15.1%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.4% 50.8% 1.97 +15.0%

Draw 24.3% 28.2% 3.55 -13.7%

Away win 17.3% 24.4% 4.10 -29.1%

Over 2.5 43.5% 48.8% 2.05 -10.8%

Over 3.5 22.5% 28.6% 3.50 -21.3%

BTTS 43.3% 54.6% 1.83 -20.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.3%

H 58% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 2–0 12.1%

#3 1–1 11.3%

#4 2–1✓ 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orenburg1.6

Nizhny Novgorod0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ORENBURG · PPG 1.08

NIZHNY NOVGOROD · PPG 0.58

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.08) > Away POOR (0.58)

Win probability 1X2

Orenburg (H) 58.4%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV +15.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -13.7%

Nizhny Novgorod (A) 17.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -29.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orenburg face Nizhny Novgorod in Russia - Premier League on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orenburg a 58% chance, the draw 24% and Nizhny Novgorod 17%, so Orenburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Orenburg and 0.8 for Nizhny Novgorod (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orenburg are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 0.58 for Nizhny Novgorod. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Orenburg vs Nizhny Novgorod Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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