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Vítkovice vs Vrchovina Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:30

Vítkovice

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vrchovina

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.7%0-24.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.5%1-111.8%1-27.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.1%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.8%3-14.7%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 48.8% 2.05 -6.3%

Draw 24.8% 31.3% 3.20 -12.4%

Away win 29.5% 32.3% 3.10 -5.1%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.1% 1.75 -5.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 37.2% 2.69 -15.0%

BTTS 54.7% 63.7% 1.57 -14.1%

Home O1.5 43.4% 53.8% 1.86 -19.3%

Away O1.5 37.3% 38.9% 2.57 -4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 35.9%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vítkovice1.5

Vrchovina1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VÍTKOVICE · PPG 1.52

VRCHOVINA · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vítkovice (H) 45.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -6.3%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.4%

Vrchovina (A) 29.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vítkovice face Vrchovina in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vítkovice a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Vrchovina 30%, so Vítkovice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Vítkovice and 1.2 for Vrchovina (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vítkovice are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.14 for Vrchovina. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Vítkovice vs Vrchovina Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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