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Unie Hlubina vs Frýdek-Místek Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:30

Unie Hlubina

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Frýdek-Místek

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+12.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.8%0-23.2%0-31.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-04.9%1-18.1%1-26.7%1-33.7%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.2%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.6%3-16.0%3-25.0%3-32.7%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-15.2%4+-24.3%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 38.5% 2.60 +26.6%

Draw 22.3% 31.3% 3.20 -17.2%

Away win 29.0% 43.5% 2.30 -20.0%

Over 2.5 67.3% 59.9% 1.67 +12.4%

Over 3.5 47.2% 39.1% 2.56 +20.8%

BTTS 63.2% 66.7% 1.50 -5.2%

Home O1.5 59.6% 46.1% 2.17 +29.3%

Away O1.5 48.5% 49.5% 2.02 -2.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 35.9%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.2%

H 49% / xG 2.1-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Unie Hlubina2.1

Frýdek-Místek1.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIE HLUBINA · PPG 1.32

FRÝDEK-MÍSTEK · PPG 1.40

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Unie Hlubina (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +26.6%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -17.2%

Frýdek-Místek (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Unie Hlubina face Frýdek-Místek in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Unie Hlubina a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Frýdek-Místek 29%, so Unie Hlubina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Unie Hlubina and 1.7 for Frýdek-Místek (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Unie Hlubina are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.40 for Frýdek-Místek. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +36.7%. This match finished 3-2.

Unie Hlubina vs Frýdek-Místek Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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