Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / Los Angeles FC II vs Sporting KC II
Los Angeles FC II vs Sporting KC II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro
Group Stage ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 02:00
// Model verdict
Home Over 1.5
Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.9% — a real, if thin, edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 79 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 66% / xG 2.9-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 61%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.1%
Form & verdict
LOS ANGELES FC II · PPG 2.25
SPORTING KC II · PPG 0.80
xG gap +1.82 for Home, form 2.25 vs 0.80 - Strong consensus
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Los Angeles FC II face Sporting KC II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Angeles FC II a 66% chance, the draw 16% and Sporting KC II 18%, so Los Angeles FC II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Los Angeles FC II and 1.1 for Sporting KC II (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Angeles FC II are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.80 for Sporting KC II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 2-1.