Today / Argentina - Reserve League / Boca Juniors Res. vs Central Córdoba SdE Res.

Boca Juniors Res. vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 20:00

Boca Juniors Res.

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Central Córdoba SdE Res.

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 76.2% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-11.8%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.2%1-15.0%1-21.1%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.4%2-16.9%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.1%3-16.4%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-019.0%4+-18.5%4+-21.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.2% 83.3% 1.20 -8.6%

Draw 16.2% 20.8% 4.80 -13.3%

Away win 7.6% 7.7% 13.00 -0.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 52.6% 1.90 +13.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 33.7% 2.97 +8.7%

BTTS 43.6% 40.0% 2.50 +9.0%

Home O1.5 65.2% 70.9% 1.41 -8.1%

Away O1.5 13.8% 10.5% 9.50 +18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob43.6%

H 76% / xG 2.8-0.4 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.4%

#2 3–0 14.1%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 4–0 9.7%

#5 1–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boca Juniors Res.2.8

Central Córdoba SdE Res.0.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BOCA JUNIORS RES. · PPG 2.38

CENTRAL CÓRDOBA SDE RES. · PPG 0.55

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.30 for Home, form 2.38 vs 0.55 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Boca Juniors Res. (H) 76.2%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -8.6%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -13.3%

Central Córdoba SdE Res. (A) 7.6%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boca Juniors Res. face Central Córdoba SdE Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boca Juniors Res. a 76% chance, the draw 16% and Central Córdoba SdE Res. 8%, so Boca Juniors Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Boca Juniors Res. and 0.4 for Central Córdoba SdE Res. (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boca Juniors Res. are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.55 for Central Córdoba SdE Res.. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Boca Juniors Res. vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Reserve League Predictions