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Gimnasia Mendoza 2 vs San Lorenzo Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 18:00

Gimnasia Mendoza 2

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

San Lorenzo Res.

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-113.3%0-26.7%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.4%1-113.5%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.8%2-16.9%2-23.5%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.3%3-12.3%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 40.0% 2.50 -11.3%

Draw 28.2% 34.5% 2.90 -10.9%

Away win 36.3% 38.5% 2.60 -5.6%

Over 2.5 44.0% 42.0% 2.38 +4.7%

Over 3.5 24.5% 25.0% 4.00 -1.2%

BTTS 48.6% 54.1% 1.85 -10.1%

Home O1.5 30.6% 37.3% 2.68 -18.0%

Away O1.5 31.6% 36.2% 2.76 -12.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.6%

D 28% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–1 13.3%

#3 0–0 13.1%

#4 1–0✓ 13.4%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Mendoza 21.0

San Lorenzo Res.1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA MENDOZA 2 · PPG 1.27

SAN LORENZO RES. · PPG 1.64

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.01, combined xG 2.03 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 (H) 35.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -11.3%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.9%

San Lorenzo Res. (A) 36.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 face San Lorenzo Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Mendoza 2 a 36% chance, the draw 28% and San Lorenzo Res. 36%, so San Lorenzo Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gimnasia Mendoza 2 and 1.0 for San Lorenzo Res. (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Mendoza 2 are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.64 for San Lorenzo Res.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 vs San Lorenzo Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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