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Defensa y Justicia Res. vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 18:00

Defensa y Justicia Res.

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Belgrano Córdoba Res.

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 48.1% — a clear edge.

+63.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.9%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.6%1-15.5%1-23.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.9%2-18.2%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.8%3-18.1%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-112.5%4+-27.5%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% 47.6% 2.10 +33.4%

Draw 15.7% 33.3% 3.00 -31.7%

Away win 20.8% 33.3% 3.00 -22.6%

Over 2.5 67.3% 54.1% 1.85 +24.5%

Over 3.5 47.6% 32.5% 3.08 +46.6%

BTTS 61.8% 58.8% 1.70 +5.1%

Home O1.5 78.4% 48.1% 2.08 +63.1%

Away O1.5 36.5% 37.3% 2.68 -2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.8%

H 64% / xG 3.0-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 1–1✓ 5.5%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 1–2 3.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensa y Justicia Res.3.0

Belgrano Córdoba Res.1.2

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA RES. · PPG 1.90

BELGRANO CÓRDOBA RES. · PPG 1.18

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.78 for Home, form 1.90 vs 1.18 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Defensa y Justicia Res. (H) 63.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +33.4%

Draw 15.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -31.7%

Belgrano Córdoba Res. (A) 20.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensa y Justicia Res. face Belgrano Córdoba Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensa y Justicia Res. a 64% chance, the draw 16% and Belgrano Córdoba Res. 21%, so Defensa y Justicia Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Defensa y Justicia Res. and 1.2 for Belgrano Córdoba Res. (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensa y Justicia Res. are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.18 for Belgrano Córdoba Res.. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +96.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Defensa y Justicia Res. vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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