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Barracas Central Res. vs Tigre Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 18:00

Barracas Central Res.

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLD

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Tigre Res.

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.8%0-114.4%0-25.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.0%1-113.0%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.7%2-15.9%2-22.3%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.3%3-11.8%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 46.5% 2.15 -17.2%

Draw 32.8% 35.7% 2.80 -8.2%

Away win 28.7% 30.8% 3.25 -4.0%

Over 2.5 34.5% 40.0% 2.50 -13.8%

Over 3.5 18.2% 22.0% 4.55 -10.3%

BTTS 43.6% 50.0% 2.00 -12.8%

Home O1.5 30.6% 40.0% 2.50 -23.5%

Away O1.5 17.9% 28.6% 3.50 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.6%

D 33% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.8%

#2 1–0 17.0%

#3 0–1 14.4%

#4 1–1 13.0%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barracas Central Res.0.9

Tigre Res.0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRACAS CENTRAL RES. · PPG 1.18

TIGRE RES. · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.14, combined xG 1.67 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Barracas Central Res. (H) 38.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -17.2%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -8.2%

Tigre Res. (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barracas Central Res. face Tigre Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barracas Central Res. a 39% chance, the draw 33% and Tigre Res. 29%, so Barracas Central Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Barracas Central Res. and 0.8 for Tigre Res. (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barracas Central Res. are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.50 for Tigre Res.. This match finished 1-3.

Barracas Central Res. vs Tigre Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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