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North Texas vs Austin II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 00:45

North Texas

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDD

UPCOMING

Austin II

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-111.0%0-28.6%0-34.5%0-4+2.5%1 1-07.6%1-112.0%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.2%2-16.5%2-25.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.5%3-12.4%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.1% 23.1% 4.33 +10.4%

Draw 25.0% 27.0% 3.70 -4.5%

Away win 47.9% 61.7% 1.62 -22.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 64.5% 1.55 -16.4%

Over 3.5 31.9% 41.3% 2.42 -22.8%

BTTS 54.7% 63.7% 1.57 -14.1%

Home O1.5 30.6% 34.1% 2.93 -10.3%

Away O1.5 48.5% 62.1% 1.61 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.7%

A 48% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 11.0%

#4 0–2 8.6%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Texas1.1

Austin II1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH TEXAS · PPG 1.67

AUSTIN II · PPG 2.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

North Texas (H) 27.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +10.4%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.5%

Austin II (A) 47.9%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

North Texas face Austin II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Texas a 27% chance, the draw 25% and Austin II 48%, so Austin II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for North Texas and 1.6 for Austin II (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Texas are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.40 for Austin II. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +23.5%.

North Texas vs Austin II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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