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Houston Dynamo FC II vs The Town Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 23:00

Houston Dynamo FC II

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDL

UPCOMING

The Town

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.2%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.7%1-19.1%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.6%3-17.1%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-16.4%4+-23.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 55.6% 1.80 +0.6%

Draw 22.2% 29.4% 3.40 -14.7%

Away win 21.9% 28.6% 3.50 -14.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 43.3% 2.31 -15.4%

BTTS 54.7% 69.4% 1.44 -21.2%

Home O1.5 64.3% 61.3% 1.63 +4.8%

Away O1.5 25.7% 40.8% 2.45 -22.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 56% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Houston Dynamo FC II2.2

The Town0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HOUSTON DYNAMO FC II · PPG 2.50

THE TOWN · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Houston Dynamo FC II (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +0.6%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.7%

The Town (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Houston Dynamo FC II face The Town in USA - MLS Next Pro on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Houston Dynamo FC II a 56% chance, the draw 22% and The Town 22%, so Houston Dynamo FC II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Houston Dynamo FC II and 0.9 for The Town (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Houston Dynamo FC II are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.18 for The Town. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.8%.

Houston Dynamo FC II vs The Town Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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