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Crown Legacy vs Connecticut FC Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 23:00

Crown Legacy

PPG 2.30 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Connecticut FC

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.0%0-21.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.2%1-15.6%1-23.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.0%2-18.1%2-25.5%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.8%3-17.8%3-25.3%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-111.4%4+-27.7%4+-33.5%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.1% 54.6% 1.83 +10.0%

Draw 17.2% 27.0% 3.70 -21.8%

Away win 22.7% 30.8% 3.25 -15.7%

Over 2.5 71.7% 66.7% 1.50 +7.5%

Over 3.5 48.1% 50.0% 2.00 -3.8%

BTTS 63.2% 71.4% 1.40 -11.5%

Home O1.5 78.4% 65.8% 1.52 +19.2%

Away O1.5 41.2% 46.1% 2.17 -10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 60% / xG 2.9-1.4 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 3–1 7.8%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 1–2 3.8%

#5 2–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crown Legacy2.9

Connecticut FC1.4

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.7% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CROWN LEGACY · PPG 2.30

CONNECTICUT FC · PPG 1.60

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.53 for Home, form 2.30 vs 1.60 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Crown Legacy (H) 60.1%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +10.0%

Draw 17.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -21.8%

Connecticut FC (A) 22.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crown Legacy face Connecticut FC in USA - MLS Next Pro on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crown Legacy a 60% chance, the draw 17% and Connecticut FC 23%, so Crown Legacy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Crown Legacy and 1.4 for Connecticut FC (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crown Legacy are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 1.60 for Connecticut FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Crown Legacy vs Connecticut FC Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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