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Talleres Córdoba Res. vs Rosario Central Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 18:00

Talleres Córdoba Res.

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rosario Central Res.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.4%0-24.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.1%1-112.3%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.1%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.0%3-14.5%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 43.5% 2.30 +3.0%

Draw 26.4% 35.7% 2.80 -15.7%

Away win 28.8% 34.5% 2.90 -9.9%

Over 2.5 50.2% 43.5% 2.30 +15.5%

Over 3.5 29.1% 24.4% 4.10 +11.6%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 40.0% 40.0% 2.50 0.0%

Away O1.5 35.6% 32.9% 3.04 +8.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Talleres Córdoba Res.1.5

Rosario Central Res.1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TALLERES CÓRDOBA RES. · PPG 1.09

ROSARIO CENTRAL RES. · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Talleres Córdoba Res. (H) 44.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +3.0%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.7%

Rosario Central Res. (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Talleres Córdoba Res. face Rosario Central Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Talleres Córdoba Res. a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Rosario Central Res. 29%, so Talleres Córdoba Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Talleres Córdoba Res. and 1.1 for Rosario Central Res. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Talleres Córdoba Res. are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.50 for Rosario Central Res.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Talleres Córdoba Res. vs Rosario Central Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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