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Independiente Res. vs Estudiantes La Plata Res Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 18:00

Independiente Res.

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Estudiantes La Plata Res

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+25.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.1%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.7%1-110.0%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.3%3-16.6%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-15.2%4+-22.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% 46.5% 2.15 +18.9%

Draw 22.1% 33.3% 3.00 -20.2%

Away win 22.6% 33.3% 3.00 -19.3%

Over 2.5 61.3% 48.8% 2.05 +25.7%

Over 3.5 38.0% 29.9% 3.34 +26.9%

BTTS 60.0% 57.8% 1.73 +3.8%

Home O1.5 54.9% 45.5% 2.20 +20.8%

Away O1.5 32.5% 35.7% 2.80 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.0%

H 55% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Res.2.0

Estudiantes La Plata Res1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE RES. · PPG 2.33

ESTUDIANTES LA PLATA RES · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Res. (H) 55.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +18.9%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -20.2%

Estudiantes La Plata Res (A) 22.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Res. face Estudiantes La Plata Res in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Res. a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Estudiantes La Plata Res 23%, so Independiente Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Independiente Res. and 1.0 for Estudiantes La Plata Res (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Res. are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Estudiantes La Plata Res. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Independiente Res. vs Estudiantes La Plata Res Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Reserve League Predictions