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Aldosivi Res. vs Argentinos Juniors Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 18:00

Aldosivi Res.

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Argentinos Juniors Res.

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-114.2%0-27.9%0-32.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.1%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.7%2-16.3%2-23.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.8%3-12.0%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% 29.4% 3.40 +4.0%

Draw 32.6% 34.5% 2.90 -5.5%

Away win 36.7% 50.0% 2.00 -26.6%

Over 2.5 39.5% 47.6% 2.10 -17.1%

Over 3.5 20.6% 25.0% 4.00 -10.6%

BTTS 47.6% 52.4% 1.91 -9.1%

Home O1.5 30.6% 29.2% 3.42 +4.7%

Away O1.5 35.6% 44.1% 2.27 -19.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.6%

D 33% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 0–1 14.2%

#4 1–0✓ 12.1%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aldosivi Res.0.9

Argentinos Juniors Res.1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALDOSIVI RES. · PPG 1.30

ARGENTINOS JUNIORS RES. · PPG 1.09

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.16, combined xG 2.05 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aldosivi Res. (H) 30.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +4.0%

Draw 32.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -5.5%

Argentinos Juniors Res. (A) 36.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aldosivi Res. face Argentinos Juniors Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aldosivi Res. a 31% chance, the draw 33% and Argentinos Juniors Res. 37%, so Argentinos Juniors Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Aldosivi Res. and 1.1 for Argentinos Juniors Res. (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aldosivi Res. are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.09 for Argentinos Juniors Res.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Aldosivi Res. vs Argentinos Juniors Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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