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Banfield Res. vs Instituto Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 18:00

Banfield Res.

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLD

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Instituto Res.

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.8%0-113.3%0-25.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.7%1-113.2%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.3%2-16.5%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.7%3-12.2%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 44.4% 2.25 -13.4%

Draw 32.8% 36.4% 2.75 -9.8%

Away win 28.7% 32.3% 3.10 -6.6%

Over 2.5 34.6% 40.0% 2.50 -13.5%

Over 3.5 18.2% 20.8% 4.80 -7.6%

BTTS 43.8% 50.0% 2.00 -12.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 37.9% 2.64 -19.2%

Away O1.5 21.7% 28.6% 3.50 -14.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.8%

D 33% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.8%

#2 1–0 16.7%

#3 1–1 13.2%

#4 0–1 13.3%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Banfield Res.1.0

Instituto Res.0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BANFIELD RES. · PPG 1.55

INSTITUTO RES. · PPG 1.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 1.78 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Banfield Res. (H) 38.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -13.4%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -9.8%

Instituto Res. (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Banfield Res. face Instituto Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Banfield Res. a 39% chance, the draw 33% and Instituto Res. 29%, so Banfield Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Banfield Res. and 0.8 for Instituto Res. (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Banfield Res. are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.09 for Instituto Res.. This match finished 2-3.

Banfield Res. vs Instituto Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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