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Gimnasia La Plata Res. vs Sarmiento Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 17:00

Gimnasia La Plata Res.

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Sarmiento Res.

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.8%0-110.2%0-23.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.8%1-112.0%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.7%2-17.1%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.6%3-12.8%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 52.4% 1.91 -12.1%

Draw 32.3% 34.7% 2.88 -7.0%

Away win 21.7% 25.6% 3.90 -9.2%

Over 2.5 34.5% 42.0% 2.38 -17.9%

Over 3.5 18.2% 22.2% 4.50 -10.9%

BTTS 43.6% 48.8% 2.05 -10.6%

Home O1.5 32.3% 43.5% 2.30 -25.7%

Away O1.5 16.5% 24.1% 4.15 -18.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.6%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.8%

#2 1–0 19.8%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0 11.7%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia La Plata Res.1.2

Sarmiento Res.0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA LA PLATA RES. · PPG 1.20

SARMIENTO RES. · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia La Plata Res. (H) 46.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -12.1%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -7.0%

Sarmiento Res. (A) 21.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia La Plata Res. face Sarmiento Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia La Plata Res. a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Sarmiento Res. 22%, so Gimnasia La Plata Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gimnasia La Plata Res. and 0.6 for Sarmiento Res. (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia La Plata Res. are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.36 for Sarmiento Res.. This match finished 0-2.

Gimnasia La Plata Res. vs Sarmiento Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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