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Samsunspor vs Göztepe Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 18:30

Samsunspor

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DWL ··

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Göztepe

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-110.6%0-25.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.1%1-113.2%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.1%2-18.2%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.4%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 45.0% 2.22 -2.1%

Draw 27.1% 29.4% 3.40 -4.7%

Away win 28.8% 32.8% 3.05 -7.3%

Over 2.5 44.8% 51.3% 1.95 -12.6%

Over 3.5 27.3% 29.0% 3.45 -3.5%

BTTS 51.4% 57.8% 1.73 -11.1%

Home O1.5 34.3% 46.5% 2.15 -26.3%

Away O1.5 31.2% 36.4% 2.75 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.4%

H 44% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samsunspor1.2

Göztepe1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMSUNSPOR · PPG 1.60

GÖZTEPE · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Samsunspor (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -2.1%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.7%

Göztepe (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Samsunspor face Göztepe in Turkey - Süper Lig on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samsunspor a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Göztepe 29%, so Samsunspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Samsunspor and 1.0 for Göztepe (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samsunspor are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.44 for Göztepe. This match finished 3-3.

Samsunspor vs Göztepe Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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